UK Immigration: a year in review and 2025 forecast unveiled

A new Government, big immigration rule updates and of course the UK immigration system going fully digital: 2024 was a year full of upheavals and change!
 

Our seasonal blog is segmented into the “12 Days of Christmas” where each day unwraps an immigration event or update that shaped the course of the year.

We then take a look at what to expect in 2025.

1. January

New rules for business visitors

The year started so well!  In January there were some welcome amendments to the list of permitted activities for business in the Immigration Rules.  The new rules added to what visitors can do in the UK without requiring a work visa. The changes included allowing some client facing activity for those visiting a UK branch/subsidiary in the same group; more permitted activities for overseas lawyers; and that people entering for permitted paid engagements will not need to be stamped in by a Border Force officer and can stay in the UK longer than the one-month paid engagement.

2. February

IHS fee increase

Any New Year high spirits were soon dampened when on 6 February the Immigration Health Surcharge nearly doubled from £624 to £1,035 per year of the visa for adults, dramatically increasing visa application costs.

3. March

Tripling of civil penalty fines

Hot on the heels of the IHS fee increase, civil penalties where an employer is found to be employing someone illegally tripled from a maximum of £20,000 to £60,000 per illegal worker. 

4. April

‘Legal’ migration changes

In an attempt to reverse the upward trend in net migration numbers, in April the outgoing government implemented a large package of restrictive measures.

Some of the measures have had the desired effect on reducing numbers.  Sponsored care workers and students (aside from those on a postgraduate research course) not being able to bring dependent family members has led to a significant decrease in people from those categories.

Whereas an increase in the going rates and headline minimum salary for a Skilled Worker from £26,200 to £38,700 has had only a marginal effect on numbers so far. 

The increase in the minimum income requirement for partners of British citizens from £18,600 to £29,000 hasn’t reduced overall numbers to date - in the year to September 2024 applications from overseas were up 31% - but will inevitably lead to more families being separated.

5. April

Long residence ILR

The Long Residence rules were changed in relation to permitted absences from the UK.  The Long Residence rules allow people who have stayed in the UK for 10 years to apply for indefinite leave to remain (ILR). Calculations around the number of days which can be spent outside the UK over the 10-year period have changed for time in the UK post April 2024.

The new rules should provide more flexibility on absences going forward but applicants can no longer rely on historic periods of residence and if their current visa was granted on or after 11 April 2024 the applicant must have had permission on their current immigration route for at least 12 months on the date of application.

6. April

No more sponsor licence renewals

April is often a busy time of year for immigration law changes and in another Spring change, UKVI announced that sponsor licences would no longer need to be renewed. Previously a Skilled Worker sponsor licence was issued for 4 years and would have to be renewed before its expiry - but that is no longer the case.

7. May

Further helpful EU Settlement Scheme updates

Following High Court litigation the Home Office has continued to scale back strict demands on people with permission from the pre-Brexit EU Settlement Scheme (EUSS).   From May 2024 people who are approaching the end of their pre-settled status will now be given an automatic 5-year extension (up from 2 years), without becoming overstayers.  Pre-settled status will only lapse as a matter of law if someone is absent from the UK for 5 years at one time, and employers now only need to check a new recruit’s pre-settled status once - before the employment starts – not again before expiry.  Some people with pre-settled status will automatically be given settled status. There was also a helpful relaxation of the rules around pending prosecutions when submitting EUSS applications.

We still need clarity about the long term position of people who don’t qualify for settled status because of excess absences but are in receipt of these automatic pre-settled status extensions.

8. July

A turbulent political year

Change in UK government

In the UK, after the sweeping April ‘legal’ migration changes, all eyes were on the incoming government to see how they’d react once in power from July.  Yvette Cooper came out of the blocks quickly to announce agreement with the raft of changes made by the previous government – including the increased salary thresholds, student and care worker family member restrictions and partner visa minimum income increases. Although they have also tasked the Migration Advisory Committee with reviewing some of these changes so we hope that evidence based improvements are in our future.

As expected the Rwanda plan was reversed.  Sir Keir Starmer recently announced a White Paper in the New Year on the link between sponsoring migrant workers and training up the resident workforce (see further below in the 2025 forecast).

Change in US president

November’s US election and Donald Trump’s upcoming return to the While House will have big implications for US immigration policies and could shape the international debate on migration. We also note increased interest in global mobility from US citizens and our services page for US citizens has a guide for UK immigration options.

9. July

Lack of UK options for entrepreneurs and new businesses

In July we wrote about the stark lack of credible options for entrepreneurs to move to the UK. The Global Talent category remains difficult to apply to with a high refusal rate and there is currently no investment option which has replaced Tier 1 (Investor).  The Innovator Founder category is not fit for purpose and entrepreneurs often do not want to have the restrictions of a Skilled Worker visa.

Any sponsor licence options, including using the UK Expansion Worker category, are made more difficult by a sharp up tick in refusals and the amount of compliance activity.

10. October

Change in UKVI’s commercial partners

UK Visas & Immigration (UKVI) assesses all UK visa applications but it uses external commercial partners to manage the administration around submission of applications at appointments. 

In the UK, Sopra Steria changed to TLScontact in October 2024.  Outside the UK, TLScontact locations have gradually been changing to VFS from September 2024 and should be finished by early 2025.  Applicants should note any changes for their location and be prepared for some disruption close to the changeover dates.

11. November

No more BRPs – the transition to eVisas

The government set itself the ambitious target of transitioning everyone to an eVisa (digital immigration status) by the end of 2024.  In August anyone with a Biometric Residence Permit (BRP) could create a UKVI account containing the eVisa.  For visa decisions on or after 1 November 2024 a BRP will no longer be issued. 

A last-minute cliff edge change was announced in December over fears there is not full readiness for eVisas.  Until at least 31 March 2025, travellers to the UK from 1 January 2025 need to still carry any valid BRP and use the view and prove service in case their eVisa does not work.  Our transition to eVisa FAQs have more details. 

12. November

ETA rolls on

In February 2024 nationals from Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia and the UAE (and Jordan although it was later removed) were added to the list of those who need to apply for Electronic Travel Authorisation (ETA) before travelling to the UK as a visitor without a visa.  The ETA is the UK’s version of the US ESTA.

The ETA is being rolled out to all remaining countries.  Nationals of non-EU/EEA countries (including the US, Canada, Australian and New Zealand) who want to visit the UK without a visa will need an ETA from 8 January 2025 and they have been able to apply from 27 November 2024.  Nationals of EU and EEA countries plus Switzerland – but not Ireland – will need an ETA from 2 April 2025 (and can start to apply from 5 March 2025) .For most this will be a simple administrative exercise but for those with any criminal convictions or complex immigration history, they should take advice as soon as possible on the potential impact of these on their eligibility for an ETA.

What can we expect in 2025?

Here we list out some key UK immigration law changes and things to watch out for in 2025:

• White Paper on linking visas with training. Labour has long talked about a desire to link visas with training – the idea that before employers can sponsor migrant workers they need to show they are upskilling workers who are already in the UK.  A White Paper is due on this in the early New Year.  Our blog highlights some of the issues around this including that a good first step would be to focus on using funds from the Immigration Skills Charge properly. 
   
• Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) reviews. In parallel to the White Paper, the government is linking the MAC to other bodies dealing with industrial and skills strategy.  The MAC has already been asked to look at skills shortages in the IT and engineering sectors, and whether there should be further partner visa minimum income increases.   The results of these reviews are likely to contribute to any policy changes in the year ahead.
   
• Problems with eVisas and the Electronic Travel Authorisation (ETA) scheme.  As above, at the end of the year last minute announcements were made in relation to BRPs expiring on 31 December 2024 still now being valid for travel to the UK until at least 31 March 2025.  Section 7 of our eVisa FAQs has more details and information about eVisa holders also creating a share code before they travel. The government is clearly worried about there being eVisa-related delays and travel issues which will cause negative headlines.  It remains to be seen whether there will be a transition period where travellers will still be able to make their way to the UK without an ETA approval for a certain period of time.  Our website on the ETA scheme has more information but we would recommend getting an ETA in place as early as possible.
   
• Travel to the EU.  The latest on the much delayed new EU Entry Exit System (EES) digital border framework is an EU Commission proposal for a phased implementation over a 6-month period.  The European Travel Information and Authorisation System (ETIAS) has also been updated to say it now says ETIAS is “due to start 6 months after EES”.  So more delays are expected to these schemes which will affect non-EU national visa-free travel to the EU – including for British citizens. 
   
• Changes to the Global Talent endorsing body for digital tech.  As our blog explained, the Home Office put the contract out to tender for a new endorsing body to take over from Tech Nation.  The date for the new contract to start was brought forward from May to March 2025. We await with interest what will happen and if the qualifying criteria for digital tech Global Talent applications will change.
   
• UK’s Ukraine schemes.  On 4 February the Ukraine Permission Extension scheme will start and grant a further 18 months’ to people with permission under one of the Ukraine schemes.  This will take the total stay for most people to 4.5 years - short of the usual 5-year period needed to apply for indefinite leave to remain (ILR).  The government has said there are currently no plans for the Ukraine schemes to lead to ILR.