What do the main political parties’ manifestos tell us about the future of UK immigration policy?

Opinion polls may be divided as to how high a priority immigration policy is for the electorate but with at least one party labelling this the ‘immigration election’, it is certainly an area which is set to attract significant scrutiny in the manifestos released this week.  We set out here a comparison of the main political parties’ immigration policies – as set out in their manifestos – and consider what it could mean for future UK immigration policy.

A summary of the key immigration policies in the manifestos can be found here.

Conservative party indicates further tightening on immigration
 

Compounding a multi year attack on asylum seekers and those entering the UK via small boats, over the last 12 months the Conservative party has taken an increasingly restrictive approach  on legal  migration.  From increasing visa application fees by around 20-30% in October 2023, nearly doubling the Immigration Health Surcharge (IHS) in February 2024 to aiming to reduce net migration by around 300,000 in legal routes by massively increasing Skilled Worker salary thresholds and family visa minimum income requirements and restricting the ability of students and care workers to bring dependants to the UK. 

Undoubtedly feeling under pressure from the Reform party, the Conservative government is indicating yet more stringent measures.  These include increasing visa fees across the board by a further (as reported in the press) 25% and removing the IHS discount for students to increase resources for policing (when IHS payments are intended to fund the NHS). The UK already ranks as one of the most expensive countries for visa fees so significant additional fees will present even bigger challenges for those in the UK and for employers recruiting those in need of sponsorship.

There is also an undefined proposal for visa applicants to be required to undergo a health check (on top of the current TB tests for applicants from certain countries) and if there are any health issues they may be required to pay extra fees and take out private medical insurance.

The data already suggests that net migration figures will be considerably lower as a result of recent Conservative policies to restrict dependants of students and care workers, as well as increasing the Skilled Worker and family visa thresholds.  The manifesto points to further attempts to reduce net migration by introducing an annual cap on work and family visas numbers – the level of the cap would be subject to an annual vote in Parliament.

On asylum policy, the Conservatives remain committed to the current Rwanda plan – aiming for flights to regularly take off beginning next month. 

What are the other parties saying?
 

Given the importance of immigration in the minds of voters, the Labour manifesto itself is fairly light on detail with regard to immigration policies.  There is support for a reduction in net migration (without giving any figures) and an attempt to link work visa applications with domestic skills/training policy. 

Emphasis is placed on bolstering the use of the Migration Advisory Committee to advise on policy.

The manifesto is silent on family migration, but the Labour party had previously said it would ask the Migration Advisory Committee to review the increases which were made to the Skilled Worker salary threshold and family visa minimum income requirements.  Even if those policies are not reversed, it is conceivable that future proposed increases (such as the Conservative party’s intention of increasing the family visa threshold again from £29,000 to £38,700 by early next year) would not happen.

On asylum policy, the Labour party will drop the Rwanda plan and has committed to the UK’s ongoing membership of the European Convention of Human Rights. They intend to tackle small boat arrivals with a focus on the criminal gangs involved in people making the journey to the UK. They also plan to focus on caseworking applications for those already in the UK to clear the substantial backlog which has arisen. Disappointingly, they appear to have dropped a commitment to allow asylum seekers to work after 6 months but it is hoped that faster decision making would allow people to begin working and establishing their lives in the UK in a more timely manner if they are recognised as refugees.

There is widespread anticipation that a Labour Government is the most likely outcome of the 4 July election. If that is the case, the development and detail of policy in this area will likely be impacted by the opposition Labour face. That could be a Conservative and/or Reform party pushing ever more restrictive policies but some opinion polling has suggested that it could be a Liberal Democrat party.

The Liberal Democrats have called for an end to the hostile environment, a reversal of the family visa minimum income requirement, easier steps for EU citizens applying to the EU Settlement Scheme, developing a Youth Mobility Scheme with the EU and reversing the ban on care workers bringing dependent family members.

A look back to the 2019 manifestos – how much has changed?
 

In the lead up to the last 2019 election before the UK left the EU, the tone of the manifestos on immigration policy was a little different. The Labour policies in 2019 included granting EU nationals the automatic right to continue living and working in the UK under the EU Settlement Scheme as a declaratory system with a chance to register for proof of status if they wish. Scrapping the Immigration Act 2014, ending the family visa minimum income requirements which separate families and restoring legal aid for immigration work were also a sign of the times at that point.  In quite a shift from the current Rwanda plan, the Conservative party said they will continue to grant asylum and support to refugees fleeing persecution, with the ultimate aim of helping them to return home if it is safe to do so. It is clear that the current manifestos from the two main parties represent a more restrictive approach to migration.

What about current large scale Home Office immigration projects?
 

The Home Office has taken on hugely cumbersome and operationally difficult projects.  In particular, by the end of 2024 the UK’s ESTA-style Electronic Travel Authorisation (ETA) scheme is due to launch to a host of additional countries (see our FAQs here).  Plus there is an ongoing project to transition everyone with a Biometric Residence Permit to an eVisa (see our FAQs here).

There was already a question mark over whether the ETA scheme and transition to eVisas would be delayed.  With the election and the chance of a change of government, we continue to question how realistic the roll out time frames are for these two projects..

All information was correct at the time of publication. Kingsley Napley does not endorse any political party.

Comparing the immigration policies of the main parties

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Further information

If you have any queries in relation to the above issues or any other immigration matter, please contact a member of the immigration team.