UK Immigration: a year in review and 2024 forecast unveiled

Even in the context of UK immigration where the law and policy change regularly, 2023 has been a bumper year for immigration announcements and looking ahead to 2024, there are even more developments on the horizon. Our blog is segmented into the “12 Days of Christmas.” where each day unwraps an immigration event or update that shaped the course of this eventful year.

1. April

Skilled Worker salary increases
The minimum Skilled Worker salary went up in April 2023.  The general salary threshold went from £25,600 to £26,200 (and the lower threshold from £20,480 to £20,960).  For Senior or Specialist Worker (ICT) applications the general threshold also went up from £42,400 to £45,800.  See Day 12 for an update on the further increases in the near future.

2. April

Tech Nation survives for Global Talent applications
On 25 April 2023 Tech Nation (a Global Talent endorsing body for digital tech applicants) announced it was acquired by Founders Forum Group (FF Group).  As explained in our blog, Tech Nation later confirmed that under the FF Group umbrella it will continue to endorse Global Talent applications as normal until a new endorsing body is found by the Home Office. This means that for anyone with exceptional talent/promise in the digital tech space, they have been able to continue to apply to Tech Nation for endorsement and then separately apply to the Home Office for the visa.  Our Tech Nation FAQs have more information.

3. April

Innovator Founder route commences

Since 13 April applicants seeking to establish an innovative business in the UK can apply to the new Innovator Founder route. As explained in our blog, unlike the predecessor categories, the new route has no set minimum investment funds requirement and Innovator Founders are permitted to undertake employment in skilled roles (RQF Level 3 or above) outside running their business. 

4. May

New migration figures cause controversy
On 23 May the net migration figures for 2022 were released.  The 606,000 figure was not as high as expected.  However, fast-forward to 23 November and this figure was revised upwards to 745,000 which has led to the government taking steps to limit ‘legal’ migration (see December for further information). 

5. June

Expansion of the Youth Mobility Scheme
Since 29 June New Zealanders applying to the Youth Mobility Scheme are eligible if they are aged 18 – 35 (it is normally 18 – 30) and can have a visa for 3 years (instead of the normal 2-years). From 31 January 2024 the same rules will apply for Australian, Canadian and Republic of Korea (new ages rules only) nationals, and Uruguay and Andorra will be added to the list of eligible countries.  As mentioned in the December entry below, it remains to be seen whether a similar scheme will be rolled out to some EU countries.

6. August

Changes to late EUSS applications
As anticipated in our blog, on 9 August the reasons for a late application to the EU Settlement Scheme became a validity requirement leading to a much stricter interpretation of what is a reasonable excuse.  Our latest blog explains the rule and guidance changes. 

7. September

High Court win for EU citizens in the UK pre-Brexit
The High Court found the UK’s EU Settlement Scheme was not in keeping with the original Withdrawal Agreement between the UK and EU.  Starting in September 2023, people who are approaching the end of their pre-settled status will be given an automatic 2-year extension, without becoming overstayers.  At some point in 2024 (the exact date is currently unknown) another part of the judgment will be implemented – some people with pre-settled status will automatically be granted settled status. The eligibility criteria have not been released but are expected to include where the Home Office can see from HMRC records that the person has been in the UK for at least 5 years.  Our blog explains more. 

8. October

UKVI application fees go up
On 4 October UKVI fees went up.  For example, the cost per certificate of sponsorship went up from £199 to £234 and a 3-year Skilled Worker visa from outside the UK went from £625 to £719.  Rishi Sunak previously said that the fee increases would fund public sector pay rises, but it is unclear whether that remains policy.

9. October

The UK’s ETA scheme launches
In October, the UK’s Electronic Travel Authorisation (ETA) scheme launched for Qatari nationals.  The ETA works in a similar way to the US ESTA scheme and is an important change for people who can come to the UK as a visitor without applying for a prior visa.  It will be rolled out to all relevant countries (including the US and EU) next year.  Our FAQs have all the details.

10. October

No more Admin Review for EUSS refusals
The rules changed on 5 October 2023 such that it is now not possible for anyone who has an EU Settlement Scheme refusal to apply for Administrative Review (AR).  This applies to all applications decided after 5 October (not just submitted after that date).  AR is an efficient way of correcting caseworker errors and misapplications of the law.  Applicants will now need to formally appeal refusals or seek judicial review. 

11. November

Supreme Court has its say in Rwanda appeals
Last month the Supreme Court delivered its much-anticipated judgment on the government’s Rwanda plan for those seeking asylum in the UK.  As explained in our blog, the court found that Rwanda is not a safe country as there is a real risk of being returned to a country where the asylum seeker would face harm.  The December entry below includes a reference to the government’s plans to overcome the judgment.   

12. December

What can we expect in 2024?
Here we list out some key UK immigration law changes and things to watch out for in 2024:

• ‘Legal’ migration changes. In the first week of December the upward revision of net migration figures for 2022 spurred the government into announcing new ‘legal’ migration policies from Spring 2024.  The new policies include confirming an increase to the general Skilled Worker salary threshold from £26,200 to £38,700, restricting the number of dependants that care workers can bring to the UK, asking for a review of the Graduate visa scheme and removing the 20% discount on going rates for shortage occupation roles. In an unexpected move, they also announced a dramatic increase to the minimum income requirement for family members of British and settled persons, increasing the earnings threshold for family visas to £38,700, more about this change here.
• IHS fee increase.  The Immigration Health Surcharge will increase on 16 January 2024 (or soon after at the end of January) from £624 to £1,035 per year of the visa (£470 to £776 for students, Youth Mobility Scheme applicants and under 18s).
• Transition to digital only visas.  The government has set itself the task of transition all visa holders away from physical Biometric Residence Permits and visas in passports to eVisas (digital immigration status).  Many visa holders (including EU citizens and Skilled Workers) already have an eVisa but the government will commence the mammoth task of switching everyone over before the end of next year.  UKVI has created this new page about the transition.  We explained the anticipated changes at our recent business immigration update webinar and will be setting out further updates in due course when more is known, including in relation to any right to work check issues.
• ETA to roll out. Whilst in September the UK’s Electronic Travel Authorisation (ETA) scheme started for Qatari nationals, by the end of 2024 it should be in place for all relevant countries, including the US, the EU, Canada and Australia.  Employers with an international workforce will need to anticipate the need for visitors to apply to the ETA and for potential difficulties, especially for anyone who has a criminal conviction.
• Expansion of youth migration scheme to EU countries. It was reported in 2023 there had been official UK government meetings with various EU countries to develop a reciprocal youth visa scheme.  Sectors such as hospitality are hard hit by staff shortages and will be hit harder as and when the Skilled Worker salary threshold increases.  Any such new visa scheme for young people would be a potential lifeline.
• Rwanda plan. With the government desperate to get its “stop the boats” policy back on track following the Supreme Court’s judgment last month, all eyes will be on any new Treaty with Rwanda and emergency legislation.  The new Treaty has already been drafted as has the very controversial Bill being considered by Parliament.  The bill raises serious questions of constitutional law and our commitment to international law.
• Illegal working fines. On 22 January 2024, civil penalties where an employer is found to be employing someone illegally are set to triple from (a maximum of) £20,000 to £60,000 per illegal worker. 
• New rules for business visitors. From 31 January 2024 new more flexible rules will come in for visitors carrying out business activities in the UK.  The changes include allowing some client facing activity for those visiting a UK branch/subsidiary in the same group; more permitted activities for overseas lawyers; and people carrying out permitted paid engagements in the UK will not need to be stamped into the UK by an Immigration Officer and can stay in the UK longer than the one-month paid engagement.
• Change in government. With the general election looming and a change in government possible, this could be a source of policy and rule changes.  These could be from an outgoing government as well as any new government. 

FURTHER INFORMATION

We look forward to working with you in 2024.  To stay up to date with UK immigration law updates, please register for our next business immigration update webinar on 23 May 2024.

In the meantime, Season’s Greetings and best wishes to you and your family from everyone in the KN immigration team.